U.S. Legal Immigration System Faces Mounting Pressure, Warns Bush Institute

By Anjali V. Deshmukh 

In her newly released Monthly Immigration Update for September 2026, Laura Collins, Director of Immigration Policy at the George W. Bush Presidential Center, presents a stark assessment of the American immigration landscape. The comprehensive policy analysis details how recent executive branch decisions, sweeping fee adjustments, and unprecedented administrative backlogs are creating severe headwinds for the U.S. legal immigration apparatus.

For the vibrant South Asian diaspora—particularly the thousands of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi families, tech professionals, researchers, and students navigating complex visa pathways—the findings highlight an increasingly unpredictable regulatory environment. Collins warns that the current trajectory not only harms foreign nationals who have diligently followed legal channels but also undermines the broader U.S. economy, educational institutions, and long-term national competitiveness.

Severe Systemic Backlogs and Shrinking Legal Pathways

A central focus of the Bush Institute’s September update is the dramatic slowdown in application processing across federal immigration channels. Citing a recent joint report for Third Way authored by immigration policy experts Sarah Pierce and Frank Sharry, Collins notes that current administrative measures are projected to reduce overall legal immigration to the United States by 33% to 50% before the end of the decade. This represents a net reduction of 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, while overall net migration to the United States may have already dropped to zero.

Inside U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), operational paralysis is becoming increasingly apparent. The agency is currently on track to adjudicate fewer petitions in 2026 than in any single year over the past decade. Simultaneously, the total pending case backlog at USCIS has expanded to a record-breaking 12.1 million pending cases, creating multi-year delays across family petitions, adjustment of status filings, and employment authorization renewals.

High-Skilled Workers Face Unprecedented Obstacles

For South Asian professionals operating in technology, engineering, medicine, and corporate management, the update brings alarming news regarding specialty occupation visas and permanent residency pathways:

• Proposed $103,265 H-1B Visa Fee: Highlighting reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Collins draws attention to a federal proposal that would levy an unprecedented $103,265 fee on most new H-1B visa petitions for high-skilled foreign talent. Crucially, this fee would also apply to international professionals already residing inside the United States who are applying to switch employers or change status. Such a massive financial burden threatens to deter corporate sponsorship and disrupt the hiring pipelines that American tech and healthcare sectors rely upon.
• 179-Year Wait for Employment-Based Green Cards: Citing a policy brief from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), the report reveals that the employment-based Green Card backlog has now surpassed 1.2 million applicants. Due to country-based cap allocations, Indian employment-based applicants filing in 2026 face estimated waiting times of up to 179 years to secure permanent residency, leaving thousands of foreign-born professionals in perpetual limbo under temporary work statuses.

Higher Education and Student Visas in Decline

The Bush Institute report also tracks significant disruptions across higher education, where international talent pipelines are facing direct pressure from tightened vetting and administrative restrictions:

• Plummeting F-1 Student Visas: According to State Department data analyzed by Inside Higher Ed, approximately 23% fewer student visas were issued in 2025 compared to 2024. The decline accelerated sharply after student visa interviews were paused in May to implement mandatory social media screening requirements. Consequently, F-1 visas for degree-seeking students plummeted by 33.4% year-over-year. As U.S. colleges lose ground, countries such as Ireland, Germany, France, Hong Kong, and Japan are actively capturing international student interest.
• Curricular Practical Training (CPT) Restrictions: Following a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) guidance memo issuing stricter rules for university work-study programs, institutions like the University of Texas at Austin have been forced to scale back CPT options. The federal directive mandates that CPT can only be approved when practical training is strictly integral to the core degree curriculum, closing off previously flexible internship avenues for foreign students.

The Cost of Executive Uncertainty and the Path Forward

Beyond employment and education, Collins emphasizes that administrative shifts have left non-immigrants and humanitarian status holders vulnerable to unpredictable policy shifts. From the expiration of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) protections to sudden freezes on refugee processing—which saw U.S. refugee admissions collapse to just 10,258 in the first 10 months of FY 2026—the lack of legislative permanence creates widespread instability.

Collins concludes that Congress’s ongoing tendency to outsource immigration policy to executive orders leaves immigrant families and American businesses at the mercy of shifting political administrations.

“It’s tempting to think that the situation is only a problem for the immigrants,” writes Collins. “But the schools and companies that are recruiting for the future are hurt by outdated policies and uncertainty around potential future executive actions. It benefits all Americans to have a legal immigration system that ensures our future prosperity, vitality, and security.”

As legislative deadlines loom, the Bush Institute urges lawmakers across both parties to prioritize comprehensive, structural reform of the legal immigration system to ensure fairness, predictability, and economic vitality.

Verification and Compliance Checklist for South Asian Diaspora Families

• H-1B & Tech Professionals: Review company sponsorship policies and monitor pending litigation surrounding proposed filing fee adjustments and labor market test requirements before filing extensions.
• F-1 International Students: Verify that current social media handles across all platforms (LinkedIn, X, Facebook, and Instagram) are set to public prior to consular visa appointments, and consult university DSO offices regarding CPT eligibility restrictions.
• Green Card Applicants (I-485): Track monthly Visa Bulletin priority date movements closely, maintain valid underlying non-immigrant status (such as H-1B or L-1), and consult legal counsel regarding travel risks during pending adjustment of status.
• Family & Visitor Visa Sponsors: Audit all public benefit usage to maintain full compliance with updated USCIS public charge guidelines during Green Card and visitor visa adjudications.

Anjali V. Deshmukh 

Anjali V. Deshmukh is an immigration lawyer in Washington, D.C., who has been working in the field for more than 15 years. She focuses on employment and religious worker visas. She graduated from Georgetown University Law Center and has spent her career helping South Asian non-profits and cultural institutions understand the complicated rules and regulations that govern immigration in the United States. Anjali speaks at national legal forums a lot, and she cares deeply about giving the Indian-American community the legal clarity it needs to protect its rich spiritual and cultural traditions. You can reach her by email at anjali@deshvidesh.com.